Ah, the AFC South. Same shit, different season. The Colts will reign supreme and everyone else will be wondering why they can't catch up. Hint: it's Peyton Manning.
Indianapolis Colts
Last Year: 14-2, AFC Champions
Key Losses: Raheem Brock
Key Additions: Jerry Hughes
I can't shit on this team. They do the three things you have to do to succeed in the NFL: they have a top QB (THE top QB), they block well enough for him and they rush the passer very well. They can't really run the ball but that's not important in today's NFL. They don't stop the run all that well either but when Colts are up 21 points in the 3rd they don't have to worry too much about the other team running. You can point to whatever faults you want of the Colts, but the fact remains that in 2009 they only lost one game they tried to win: the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is the best QB in a league that is built around QBs, and his team compliments him to near perfection. There's not much to say because there's no real room to critique. There's a reason they've won at least 12 games for the past 7 years. As long as Peyton Manning is healthy, the sky is the limit for this team.
Houston Texans
Last Year: 9-7, 2nd place
Key Losses: Dunta Robinson
Key Additions: Nobody
The Texans... somebody has to be average. And that's exactly what they'll be this year. Matt Schaub's good, but he's not on the level where he can carry his team on his back. Maybe he'll break out on to that level, but right now he's not there and I don't see it happening. He'll once again put up huge numbers and not reach the playoffs. Part of that is because the defense is average all around or worse and the loss of Dunta Robinson and Brian Cushing's lack of steroids will offset any incremental gains the rest of the defense makes. The defense is young and has talent, but not enough. And they'll forever be playing catchup to Peyton Manning and the Colts.
Tennessee Titans
Last Year: 8-8, 3rd place
Key Losses: Keith Bulluck, Kevin Mawae, Kyle Vanden Bosch
Key Additions: Will Witherspoon, Derrick Morgan
Anyone who thinks that Chris Johnson will repeat his 2,000 yard season (and yes, they exist), well I hope you don't put any money down on it. He's not even going to crack 1700 yards, if he doesn't get hurt. Don't believe me? I've got history on my side. 2,000 yards has only been broken five other times. Let's look at what those RBs did.
CJ2K had 2006 yards on 125.4 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. His 358 carries were a league high, which isn't a "bet your mortgage his legs fall off the next year" level of high, but it also doesn't help his case any.
In 1984 Eric Dickerson set the record with 2105 yards, which was 131.6 yards a game, his 379 carries were high but did not lead the league but put him 3rd. In 1985 he missed two games and his yards/game dropped to 88.1, he had 1234 yards. And his yards per carry dropped from 5.6 to 4.2. 1984 was the only time he surpassed 4.6 yds/carry. He would put up a league best 1659 yards in 1988, but on a league high 388 carries, good for only 4.3 yds/carry. Bottom line: the next year he got hurt and his rate stats plummeted.
In 2003 Jamal Lewis had 2066 yards, 5.3 yds/carry and 129.1 yards/game on a 2nd best 387 attempts. In 2004 he missed 4 games and had 83.8 yards/game and 4.3 yds/carry for 1006 yards. He never surpassed 4.4 yds/carry other than 2003, and yard totals from then on out were good but not great: 906, 1132, 1304, 1002. Bottom line: the next year he got hurt and his rate stats plummeted.
Barry Sanders had 2053 yards in 1997, at a clip of 128.3 yds/game and 6.1 a carry on a paltry 335 carries, although that was at the time his 2nd highest season total. In 1998 he started every game and racked up 1491 on 93.2 yds/game and 4.3 yds/carry on only 343 carries. Then he retired. Bottom line: the next year his rate stats plummeted.
Terrell Davis had 2008 yards in 1998. He had 125.5 yds/game and 5.1 yds/carry. His 392 carries were 2nd to when the Falcons ran Jamal Anderson into the ground. Over the next three years he played in 17 games total, his career was done after blowing out his knees. Bottom line: the next year he got hurt and his rate stats plummeted.
OJ Simpson, in a different era, had 2003 yards in 14 games (which of course was a full season at the time) in 1973. He had 6.0 yds/carry and a ridiculous 143.1 yards/game. In 1974 he fell back to earth with 1125 yds with 80.4 and 4.2, but he didn't miss any time. In 1975 he put up 1817 yards on 129.8 and 5.5, and in '76 he had 1503/107.4/5.2, both yardage totals were league highs and no time was missed. After that though he was toast. But like I said, it was a different era, so you have to make him a bit of an outlier, but still his following season falls in line with everyone else's. Bottom line: the next year his rate stats plummeted.
This is not to say that CJ won't continue to be a good back. Just that he's going to have a huge drop off this year. Dickerson and Simpson would go on to lead the league in rushing again, but it wasn't the next year. Davis' career was finished after his, Sanders dropped off and then was done, Lewis turned into a serviceable but nothing special back. And if you look at the guys who finished just shy, Earl Campbell in 1980, Barry Sanders in 1994, Ahman Green in 2003, Shaun Alexander in 2005, they all dropped off significantly the next year. Only Sanders rebounded, but then he was one of the best ever. Heck Earl Campbell was a beast and he had only one good year left in him after 1981. Chris Johnson is going to have a bad year, and everyone's going to wonder why. It's pretty obvious: that level of greatness is not repeatable.
As for the rest of the Titans, they're just not good enough. I don't believe in Vince Young and the rest of the team needs help everywhere. But Jeff Fisher is a damn good coach so they'll be a tough out.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Year: 7-9, 4th place
Key Losses: John Henderson
Key Additions: Kirk Morrison, Aaron Kampmann
This team stinks.
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