I've been negligent with the blog lately. That changes today. Today I start an eight part NFL preview, one for each division. I'll predict the order of finish but not the records, predicting the actual records is pointless. But these aren't your normal previews, where everything's rosy and bets are hedged because a national media member has his reputation to worry about. These are the ramblings of a jerk who literally makes a living watching football. Nice work if you can get it.
Let's start with the least competitive division, the AFC West, where the only thing up for grabs is 2nd place. Teams listed in predicted order of finish. Oh, and don't expect a playoff (other than of course division winners) or Super Bowl prediction. That's completely foolish at this point in the season.
San Diego Chargers
Last year: 13-3, AFC West Champions, one and done in the playoffs
Key Additions: Ryan Matthews (draft)
Key Losses: Vincent Jackson (maybe), Marcus McNeil (maybe), Jamal Williams, Antonio Cromartie and his 8 children
Even without Jackson and McNeil, who are holding out, this team is still too good to not win the division. Just having Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates is enough to separate the Chargers from the drek that is the AFC West. Which means they'll have an inflated record and get exposed in the playoffs again. Because this year they're headed for a downgrade. Jamal Williams only played one game last year due to injuries, but the Chargers were never really able to replace him (in part due to injuries to his replacements) so his loss hurts, as does Cromartie's. Cromartie wasn't that good, but they have no one waiting in the wings to replace him. Still, I can't blame them for trading him and his excessive baggage. Losing LaDanian Tomlinson and his pathetic 3.3 yards per carry does not hurt, he is toast behind that offensive line. Ryan Matthews will be an upgrade simply because he's fresh legs. The Chargers will be just fine at the RB position. As for actually running the ball, well, that's different. Their offensive line can't run block, which is one reason why LT and Darren Sproles couldn't break 4.0 yds/carry. Good thing Sproles and Matthews are paid well. The Chargers once again won't do much in the playoffs because they don't have the horses to make a run and Norv Turner is their coach. But unlike the rest of this division, they'll at least be in the playoffs.
Oakland Raiders
Last year: 5-11, 3rd place
Key Additions: Jason Campbell, JaMarcus Russell (addition by subtraction)
Key Losses: Kirk Morrison
Last year, the Oakland Raiders were proof of just how important QB play is to a NFL team. JaMarcus Russell was, by far, the worst QB in the league. Finally, amazingly, owner/czar Al Davis allowed coach Tom Cable to bench him. Bruce Gradkowski stepped in and the Raiders QB quality went from a distant 32nd in the league to somewhere around 26th, ahead of or in the mix with Jake Delhomme, Derek Anderson/Brady Quinn, Matthew Stafford/Daunte Culpepper, Josh Freeman, and whoever the Bills and Rams were trotting out each game. And suddenly the Raiders started winning, against good teams. As a starter Gradkowski went 2-2, beating the Steelers and Bengals before getting hurt. It wasn't pretty, he wasn't lighting the world on fire, but Gradkowski's play, even being not that good, was so much better than Russell's the team starting playing respectable football. The addition of Jason Campbell in the off-season upgrades the position even more. Now the Raiders have an average QB (hey, someone has to be average) and could actually score some points. Maybe. The WRs are still terrible, and the stable of RBs isn't much. But they've got a competent signal caller, and in this league that's worth a lot. And that was just the icing on the cake of a stunningly good off-season for the Raiders, who for the first time in years had a good draft. Defensively, they should be solid, although trading away Kirk Morrison for peanuts shows that Al Davis isn't done doing stupid things. Still, with Nnamdi Asomugha, Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain, the defense has some good pieces. So far in the pre-season, which doesn't mean much, they've really gotten to the QB. 2nd place is a very realistic goal.
Now watch Al Davis fuck it all up. Coaching under him is an impossible situation. I feel bad for Tom Cable and I root for him because of it. He started training camp off last year with two days of walk throughs, saying something to the effect of "if we can't get the basics down what's the point of working on the other stuff?" Seriously, good for him. He knows the situation he's in and he's going to make the best of it. Warren Sapp said that when he was in Oakland the coaches would, as everyone else does, spend Wednesday and Thursday installing the game plan for the week. And then on Friday Al Davis would have them change it all up, at which point it was too late. When Art Shell was the head coach, Davis hired Tom Walsh as the offensive coordinator. Walsh, who had been out of football and running a bed and breakfast for 8 years prior. You can't make this stuff up. It's possible that he's relaxed on this, after all he did allow JaMarcus Russell not only to be benched but to be cut. Also he was right about Lane Kiffin.
Denver Broncos
Last year: 8-8, 2nd place
Key Additions: Jamal Williams
Key Losses: Brandon Marshall, Mike Nolan
I can't stand Josh McDaniels. I don't know how he got the job in the first place, his qualfications were thin: he just happened to be the guy telling Tom Brady to throw the ball to Randy Moss and Wes Welker, with Bill Belichick running the show. Hard life. He's turned the roster over with such perplexion it's going to be fun watching him spiral into unemployment. He's run star players out of town and replaced them with average players, last year Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton, this year Brandon Marshall for injured rookie DeMaryius Thomas (who is gifted but raw). He brought in an excellent defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan to turn his defense around, which he did as much as can be expected in his first season, and then let him leave after a year. Plus, he's a whiny little arrogant bitch. Two clips of him "coaching" his team from last year illustrate my point. Here's a link to show I'm not making crap up. In one he's got his offensive line and some other players around him, and he says "We haven't seen what we can do because it doesn't even look like a football team out there. Let's go!" You have to see it to really get the effect, his voice raises in pitch and finally cracks, he sounds like a child whining about not getting something he doesn't deserve. You know why they don't look like a football team Josh? Because you're a lousy coach who thinks his Xs and Os alone is enough. You're a younger, skinnier, louder version of Charlie Weis. The second quote is "I'm not talking about my bad anymore. Just make the play!" Well, maybe he can't. Or maybe you should, you know, actually coach him on how to better make it rather than just yell at him. Of course, the Broncos won that game, but that's besides the point. There's a reason the team started 6-0 and finished 8-8: the league figured you out Josh, and since you've downgraded your team once again, it's going to figure you out good this year.
p.s. Tim Tebow is going to suck. Maybe if he had a real coach he'd turn out good. This notion that he'll be a good wildcat QB is bunk for two reasons. First, he simply doesn't have the physical tools to succeed. He's not fast or agile enough. The teams that use the Wildcat here and there, The Falcons with Jerious Norwood, The Eagles with DeSean Jackson then Michael Vick, the Broncos last year with Eddie Royal... these players were the fastest players on the team. Tim Tebow is not fast enough, and he's not agile enough. The one team that regularly uses the Wildcat, the Dolphins, are in a separate category. First, Ronnie Brown is faster and more agile than Tebow. Second, whereas other teams use the Wildcat as a gimmick, the Dolphins use it as a staple of their playbook. To them it's no different than the shotgun. So if the Broncos are going to commit to the Wildcat like the Dolphins do, then it's going to stunt the needed development of Tebow as a passer. It's a lose/lose proposition for him. I want Tebow to succeed, I really do, but he's not going to under Josh McDaniels.
Kansas City Chiefs
Last year: 4-12, 4th place
Key Additions: Thomas Jones, Eric Berry (draft), Dexter McCluster (draft)
Key Losses: The Chiefs aren't good enough to have any key losses.
Todd Haley is another 2009 rookie coach who's qualifications are thin. Previously he told Kurt Warner to throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. Good job, you called the offense starring a borderline HOF QB and the best trio of WRs in the league, and your head coach was a Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator. Tough stuff that is. And when the defense was on the field you screamed at people, most notably Boldin. As head coach Todd Haley now screams at everyone. Given his resume and the talent on the field, it's no surprise that Kansas City won only 4 games last year. Still, there were promising signs here and there. The in-season addition of Chris Chambers sparked the offense a bit, Jamal Charles had a good but unrepeatable season (5.9 yards a carry is absurd), Tamba Hali somehow played well; and the off-season additions of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel as offensive and defensive coordinators respectively is a welcome upgrade. They were crap head coaches but they're good coordinators. Thomas Jones is a nice addition as well, so long as they don't lean on him too much. I didn't like what they did in the 2009 draft, but KC's 2010 draft was pretty good. Still, this team stinks. The defense can't stop any body and the offense isn't good enough. It's going to be a long season in Kansas City, but with so many young players and a coaching staff that has proven it can develop players, it could be a long, bad season of legitimate promise.
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